THE ENERGY CRUNCH
SALADACRES
This section is divided into 2 parts; 1) What we are doing about the rising cost of energy and global warming. There is no point forecasting doom, without offering a solution. 2) The dangers of fuel shortages and global warming.
1. WHAT WE ARE DOING ABOUT FOOD COSTS AND ENERGY
SA ACTIONS
2. DANGER SIGNS
THE COMING FOOD CRISIS
FARMS WILL FAIL
16 YEARS ALL DOWNHILL
PEAK OIL PRESENTATION
SA SOLUTION
RISING PRICES OF FUEL
ALTERNATE HEAT SOURCES TO FOSSIL FUELS
GROWING WITH CARBON DIOXIDE
CLIMATE CHANGE
SURVIVAL ALARM
1. WHAT WE ARE DOING ABOUT FRESH FOOD COSTS AND ENERGY
SA ACTIONS
The use of renewable fuels in agriculture is inevitable because the world is running out of cheap oil. It is now estimated the average distance a food product travels is 1500 miles and more (1). Its common to now see a trucking bill of $10,000 cost more than the food being delivered. As the price of oil keeps going up, local production of produce for local markets is becoming the only way of doing business. SA can do this in greenhouses powered with renewable fuels. By using renewable fuels, our production costs will be controlled, and the benefactors will be our customers. We can locate a greenhouse within minutes of markets and this will keep transport costs to a minimum.
SA designs, builds and operates greenhouses for the year round growing of pure, fresh vegetables. We are urged, compelled, and motivated to use renewable biomass fuels because they are sustainable. Now, with the coming storms of climate change , species extinction, recession, and the rising cost of fossil fuels, the move away from fossil fuels as a source of energy is imperative. We feel the currency of the future will be energy and food.
Heat and electricity are generated by an on site ‘power package’ that burns renewable biomass fuels.
We will burn biomass energy in non polluting incinerators, to produce heat for hot water. The equipment is on the same site as the greenhouses. The hot water is then used to heat our greenhouses and other buildings; and to provide energy to drive a new turbine that generates electricity. The electricity powers the greenhouses. For both heat and electricity, the surpluses can be exported to the community.
The biomass fuels can be: straw, peat, manures, other agricultural waste; forest, and mill waste; construction and factory waste; and sorted municipal waste. Millions of tons are available. The fuels are first shredded, then compressed into dense bales (50-75 kg / 110 – 165 lbs) at the source of the fuel. In some cases such as sawdust and manures, the fuels are sealed in a bag. The bales are then trucked to the incinerator which in most cases would be located far from the source.
'Buzzard' (burns anything) biomass boiler assembly consisting of a rotary incinerator, heat exchanger, and turbine. This is proprietary equipment for the exclusive use of Saladacres. It makes hot water for heating and electricity - which are almost free.
Turbine and generator components of the Buzzard for the production of electricity on site.
Incomes and benefits from the use of renewable fuels to provide heat, electricity, and fresh food:
· Produce sales
· Carbon credits where applicable
· Pickup fees for some fuels
· Electricity sales off grid
· Heat sales to buildings off site
· Location of greenhouses in areas where there are no gas or electric lines
Direct benefits to community
· Pure, healthy, produce sold locally year round at affordable prices
· Jobs: construction, production, and sales year round
· Eliminant reliance on diesel electric generators in some community situations
· Better health and lower medical costs
· Low cost heating and electricity for businesses and homes
· Less carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere through reduced consumption of fossil fuels
· Reduction in landfill volumes
· Reduction in potential ground water pollutants
· An option for the survival of individuals and communities
2. DANGER SIGNS
THE COMING FOOD CRISIS
Ten to fifteen calories of fossil fuels are required for every one calorie of food eaten (1). Most of the fossil fuel is oil. If a lion spends 10 times the energy catching an antelope than is taken from eating the antelope, the lion will die. The U.S. is spending $175 billion per year importing 78% of the 23 million barrels a day it consumes.
The world is running out of oil (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10). High oil prices are leading to the cost of all food, and especially fresh food, being too expensive for most people. Weaning from the addiction to oil will be a catastrophe in slow motion for those who are unprepared. The edge of the cliff is in sight. The apparent abundance of food now is an illusion, because most of it is processed bulk, water, and air with little nutrition.
When fresh food supplies fail, history (world wars, great depression, past civilizations) has shown that degenerative diseases such as arthritis, heart disease, cancers become common and incurable. Infections from every microbe around rise, and life spans shorten.
In the late 1980s, farmers in Cuba were highly reliant on cheap fuels and petrochemicals imported from the Soviet Union, using more agrochemicals per acre than their American counterparts. In 1990, as the Soviet empire collapsed, Cuba lost those imports and faced an agricultural crisis. The population lost 20 pounds on average and malnutrition was nearly universal, especially among young children. The Cuban GDP (Gross Domestic Product) fell by 85% and inhabitants of the island nation experienced a substantial decline in their material standard of living. Cuban authorities responded by breaking up large state-owned farms, offering land to farming families, and encouraging the formation of small agricultural co-ops. Cuban farmers began employing oxen as a replacement for the tractors they could no longer afford to fuel.
We are coming to the end of the age of cheap oil energy. In terms of history, the use and expansion of oil for energy over the last 100 years has been sudden, and we are now on the downside of peak oil availability. In 2008, when oil went to $147 per barrel, the economy based on cheap oil collapsed. Food prices soared and there were food riots in 39 countries. The financial crisis that followed was an aftershock because company earnings based on cheap oil energy were gone. There is more to come.
FARMS WILL FAIL
As we run out of oil, successful farmers will revert to the horse and plough, or machinery based on renewable fuels. During the forced switch to renewable fuels in farming, production will fall in comparison to using engines and inputs based on fossil fuel.
Failing farmers will quit, because the costs of fuel, equipment, fertilizers, and pesticides will drive them out of business.
Farming will return to the 1910 steam tractor age when agriculture supported a population in the U.S. and Canada of 63 million, and not the 332 million today. What will happen to 269 million people when their oil dependent food disappears? The bulk of the world’s population of 7 billion is now dependent on fossil fuels for food. Some say the sustainable level is 2 billion. The question is: who will survive among those who insist on fossil fuels as their energy source?
Oil dependent food will either be too expensive, or vanish from the shelves. Predictions as to what will happen are panic, inflation, food riots, robbery, health crises, race friction, migrations, high taxes, high heating and gasoline costs, rage, and huge debt. Eventually the population will drop. Food and energy are the future currencies.
16 YEARS ALL DOWNHILL
We are using fossil fuels at a rate 1,000,000 times faster than they were formed. In one day, we use fossil fuels that
took 500 years to form. In 16 years from 2008, the supply of cheap oil on earth will be burned. This is not taking into account the rising consumption of India and China. So it will be sooner. That’s almost tomorrow! Here is the arithmetic.
Accessible world reserves left (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) 500 billion barrels
Consumption per day in the world 85 million barrels
Days left (500,000 / 83) 5,882
Years 16
One billion barrels of oil now takes only 12 days to burn at current world consumption rates of 85 million barrels a day! The remaining 500 billion barrels of recoverable oil on the planet will be gone in 16 years. This is not sensational, alarmist, or threatening. It is fact and arithmetic. For a dramatic show of oil consumption at over 1,000 barrels a second, go to the website www.capitalandenergy.com
Food production now relies almost exclusively on oil. 15 calories of fossil fuels are required to create 1 calorie of food. As oil supplies drop, they will be replaced by other fossil fuels and energy prices will rise even higher.
The cost of fresh produce will rise beyond belief. Other costs rising are water for irrigation and processing, food security, refrigeration, packaging, and transport from California, Mexico, and Central America. The whole fresh food chain is undergoing an upward price trend and along with it the costs of health care. However, SA will be able to grow and process affordable produce because of year round regional production, and a reliance on renewable fuels for heating.
Ethanol production from biomass will increase the cost of food and transportation. In 2007, the cost of corn has risen to $4/bu from $1.65/bu, two years ago; because 170 ethanol plants are now consuming 50% of the corn crop in the United States to produce ethanol as a fuel additive. There are 270 more ethanol plants being built or planned. This will take all the corn crop, plus other biomass resources. Other crops for biomass production will simply replace corn on the same land. The cost of ethanol will rise, and so will food. Food bills will double and triple; for example, syrups, breakfast cereals, beer, pop, hamburgers. The cost of fresh water will skyrocket because land crops depend on fresh water which is also a finite resource.
The U.S. produces 70% of the world corn crop and much of this was exported. Exports will go down to a trickle.
In 1910, horses started disappearing from farms and were replaced by gas tractors and other equipment. The population was 60 million people. The combined populations of the United States and Canada are now 330 million. We can say that most of these people are being fed with crops grown with gasoline and diesel driven farm equipment. If the use of oil is subtracted in the production of food then there are 5 options: 1) the number of horses to replace gas driven farm equipment must rise by 5 times (330 million / 60 million); this will take at least 50 years because of the huge population buildup, and the allocation of farmland to feed them; this is too long because oil is running out in 15 years; 2) biofuels? No. Because biofuels also require farmland; 3) Reduce oil consumption in the world? Unlikely because if the U.S. cuts back on the 23 million barrels a day now consumed, the slack will be picked up by India and China. We will still run out in 15 years. 4) A migration back to smaller towns and trend toward local gardens, self sufficiency, and lower standard of living? This will be a sensible option for people who can maintain and afford a garden, who are even interested, and can afford to get out of suburbia. Or they live in suburbia and rely on a known rural food supplier who will give or sell them food. However, most people still think milk comes from the supermarket and could care less. 5) Develop urban food supplies locally? This is the option we are pursuing with SA.
Like it or not, the population has to shrink. It may not be back to 1910 levels of 60 million, but somewhere in between 60 million and 330 million. The transition will be marked by tremendous social upheaval and frustration. It’s a matter of survival, and SA has a food answer for our customers in the short and long term.
Projections in 2008, state that by 2030, 8.3 billion people will walk the Earth which is an increase of 2 billion in 21 years. Farmers will have to grow 30% more grain. The system is already stretched.
PEAK OIL PRESENTATION
Rep. Roscoe Bartlett, gave a presentation on Peak Oil, to Congress and C-Span cable in Apr. and May of 2006. He cited 2 reports requested by the Dept. of Energy (“google” Hirsh Report) and U.S. Army (“google” Roscoe Bartlett). Highlights are:
• Oil supplies are peaking now; it will be abrupt and not temporary
• There are no energy substitutes for the convenience of oil energy on the horizon
• The end of cheap oil will end civilization as we know it
• Economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented – a social convulsion
There will be victims and many won’t know what hit them; there will be losers who know and do nothing, and there will be survivors. SA is a survivor.
SA SOLUTION
The use of renewable fuels in agriculture is inevitable because the world is running out of cheap oil. It is now estimated the average distance a food product travels is 1500 miles (1). This must change because transport uses large amounts of oil. With expensive oil, local markets selling local produce will become the only way of doing business.
Heating our greenhouses with renewable fuels has taken years of design work and was motivated by survival. We are now able to use agricultural, municipal, forest, landfill, and construction wastes, as well as geothermal sources for fuels.
By using renewable fuels, our production costs will be controlled, and the benefactors will be our customers. SA greenhouse locations are within minutes of markets and this will keep transport costs to a minimum.
RISING PRICES OF FUEL
Oil and natural gas prices are increasing dramatically. Starting now, many say a serious, permanent, world shortage of natural gas and oil will happen and this will drive up the cost of everything.
Oil and natural gas prices are starting to rise, and will increase dramatically in the next 4 years. By 2010, the only significant oil left will be in the Alberta tar sands and the Middle East, and production will start to decline. As conventional reserves decline, as they are now, prices will rise. The rate of oil guzzling is huge. For example, if Hibernia (offshore oilfield) was to supply the world at the present world consumption of 85 million barrels a day (30 billion barrels a year) Hibernia reserves (550 million barrels) would last 7 days. The same analogy applies to the Alaskan reserves.
David Goodstein (1) states the following: “America’s (and Canada’s) dependence on oil could prove fatal. In the course of a few generations, we have nearly used up the Earth’s entire supply of accessible petroleum. When that and the other more-difficult-to-use fossil fuels are used up, we will have nothing to live on except the light from the sun and whatever nuclear fuel on Earth we haven’t burned.” In his recent book, “Hubberts Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage,” retired geologist Kenneth S. Deffeyes’ estimates conventional oil supplies will peak in 2004. After that we will have no choice but to live on less oil. The challenge is to kick the fossil fuel habit over the next decade. The alternative is to have our civilization slide into oblivion.
When the international price of oil rises, the price of natural gas will rise, followed by coal. These price increases will mean higher costs of farm fuel, herbicides, insecticides, labor, electricity, plastics, fertilizers, diesel, gasoline, tires and parts. The costs of growing, processing and trucking food to markets will increase in direct relation to the increases in energy costs. Since 95% of North America’s produce is trucked from California, Mexico, and Florida, the end prices of produce in the future may come as a shock to buyers. The price of fresh produce and food in general will increase.
ALTERNATE HEAT SOURCES TO FOSSIL FUELS
SA can burn a variety of fuels to heat hot water for range heating. Fuels of the past “are” coal and natural gas. Long term heat sources that will be relied by SA on will be renewable biomass or solar sources. Biomass fuels are sustainable and renewable and include: forest and demolition waste, peat, forest waste, agricultural waste (e.g. straw), and sorted municipal garbage. All biomass fuels will be burned in gasifier equipment with zero pollution.
Daily Cost of Imported Oil
The U.S. currently imports 14M barrels of oil per day. If this oil was priced at $100 per barrel, the daily loss to the country would be $7 billion per day (100 x 14M = $1.4 billion x economic multiplier of 5). The economic multiplier is the expansion in economic activity that would take place if the $1.4 billion remained in the country. The money is used over and over again, rather than being sent offshore.
Sunlight
Areas having high levels of sunlight are attractive to SA. Sunlight is the energy that provides the wattage for photosynthesis. Also, sunlight heats the greenhouses during the day, even on the coldest winter days.
Gasifiers
Gasifiers are a type of furnace that burns biomass fuel in 2 stages. The first stage burns or gasifies the fuel at low temperatures (500F) to produce smoke and gases. The second stage mixes these gases with more oxygen and fires the fuel at high temperatures (2300-2500F). This heat is then directed to a boiler to produce steam, or a heat exchanger to heat hot water. Gasifiers can burn a variety of biomass fuels such as: wood waste, hog (shredded) fuel, peat, forest waste, and sawdust. They can extract 50% more heat from the fuel over regular low temperature burning. Because of the high secondary burning temperatures, pollution is almost zero, and flue stack emissions are invisible.
Steam can be directed into a turbine for the production of electricity. Heat can be used to distill water. Filtered gases from the gasifier can be used to fuel a diesel engine for the production of electricity. SA will use gasifiers when geothermal heat is not available.
Rotary Incinerator
Rotary incinerators are cylinders in which solid wastes are pushed in one end, burned in the middle and ash and heat collected at the end. They burn at high temperatures and can burn a variety of solid fuel with no pollution. This equipment is ideal for burning landfill waste. A new incinerator / boiler and heat exchanger is now being developed by SA.
Turbines
SA uses a turbine for generating electricity on site which is exclusive to SA. It will be Iso Certified and operated in all locations. The turbine will run on steam or hot water energy, and the hot water version is called a binary turbine. It will be part of a power package, that consists of an incinerator that produces heat from biomass, a boiler or heat exchanger, turbine, and generator. This is a skid mounted assembly 8’ wide, and about 35’ long, ready to go at the time of delivery. The performance will be monitored and servicing will always be available. The initial capacity of the power package will be 500 kW and will be able to provide electricity to over 5 ranges.
99% of the turbines now in use burn natural gas and kerosene. Our turbine is unique in that it can run on hot water from solar panels, or hot water a burner that burns biomass (straw, wood chips, agricultural waste, sorted municipal garbage), or steam from a boiler. We are immune from the rising costs of electricity on the grid because we generate our own cheap electricity.
Fuel Cells
Fuel cells are fueled with hydrogen and oxygen. The products of a fuel cell are electricity, heat, and pure water. They do not produce CO2 as a byproduct therefore we would get CO2 from another source. Fuel cells can replace fossil fuels altogether in the generation of electricity and are therefore the power generators of the future. The hydrogen can be sourced from natural gas or separated from water by using electricity from solar panels. Fuel cell equipment is available now and can be used in special situations.
We intend to use inexpensive electricity from the SA power package to generate hydrogen. The power package consists of a biomass burner, heat exchanger or boiler, turbine, and electric generator. We will split water neutral pH, ordinary water molecules into hydrogen and oxygen gas with a new method of electrolysis. This monumental and new process uses low amounts of electricity at room temperature by simulating the photosynthesis process in plants. Up until now, large amounts of electricity were required to electrolyze water.
The hydrogen is collected and stored in tanks for use in fuel cells. Fuel cells produce electricity that can power our greenhouse vehicles and trucks. Fuel cells are now using natural gas as a source of hydrogen
This new method of collecting hydrogen enables SA to enter the hydrogen economy. This will be good for profits and excellent for sustainability. Hydrogen power is the future of food. In a few years we will look on the dependence on fossil fuels as a brief, wasteful, damaging, killing, and dirty venture.
Geothermal
Energy in the form of hot water from the earth is an ideal source of heat. Drilling for hot water in areas of active hot springs would be the plan.
GROWING WITH CARBON DIOXIDE
When bright sunlight is combined with elevated levels of carbon dioxide within the greenhouses, plants can respond by increasing their growing rate and mass by up to 50%. Therefore it is to our advantage to use carbon dioxide at elevated levels whenever possible.
Sunlight, which powers photosynthesis, also heats up the interior of the climate buildings or greenhouses, and this heat, along with water vapor must be vented to maintain growing conditions. If carbon dioxide is being used, it gets vented along with the heat and water vapor. The colder the outside temperature, the less venting is required. Therefore, carbon dioxide can be contained for longer time periods when the outside temperature is cold; the colder and sunnier the day, the better. For example, these conditions are frequent on the prairies during the autumn, winter, and spring months. The use of carbon dioxide in the cooler months will compensate for slower growth due to lower sunlight strengths and duration.
The products of burning natural gas are heat, carbon dioxide, and water. We have designed equipment to recover carbon dioxide from the boiler flue gas or the burning of landfill methane (natural gas). The cost of carbon dioxide is minimal when we generate our own by burning natural gas.
The first choice of fuels from which to create carbon dioxide is natural gas or methane. Methane can be sourced from a natural gas company or landfill gas. The second choice is propane.
F) in the Western Prairies, resulting from a doubling of the pre-industrial carbon dioxide concentration to 560 ppm from 280 ppm. It is expected that a 2 C (4 F) warming will happen sometime this century, and some feel it will be in the first 25 years. It has already started, and the rate of warming is unprecedented in recorded history. 2004 and 2005 were two of the warmest years on record and the temperatures are rising. January 2006 was the warmest in recorded history.
In 1998, Environment Canada stated that global warming was responsible for a 2.5 degree C (4.5 F) general rise in temperature in Canada, a 4 degree C (7 F) rise in arctic temperatures, and 2.7% less precipitation. This magnitude of temperature rise was predicted 3 years ago to occur in 2040. This is 40 years ahead of schedule! This indicates that the trend of global warming is long term, rapid, and dangerous for some areas. Those areas experiencing negative effects now will surely feel them more in the future.
If the lowlands are flooded, the suggestion has been made that agriculture would cover this loss of land by growing food in the warmer northern areas. However, traditional agriculture depends on a soil base, that has been built up over the centuries from previous growth and laid down as topsoil. There is little topsoil in northern areas so production would rely partially on hydroponics. Since hydroponic operations are costly to install in comparison to soil based agriculture, food would be expensive. The population of the earth would have to drop dramatically.
As stated by David Price et al, of the Dept. of Natural Resources Canada, “Humanity is conducting a one time experiment with greenhouse gases which may result in marked changes in the global environment affecting us all. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions is the only sensible approach to keeping our options open”. The operation of 100 SA ranges consumes and prevents the emissions (diesel transport from the southern U.S.) of 190,000 tons of CO2 per year. SA may realize an income in the form of carbon credits because of this consumption.
CLIMATE CHANGE
The planet’s biosphere is failing and oceans are dying. This is not a warning but a fact. So get ready. Never in human history has there ever been such a critical point. Social unrest and upheaval, water wars, starvation migration, debt, and invasions are guaranteed if history is any guide. Human activity is changing the climate. In pre-industrial times, the carbon dioxide (C02) level in the atmosphere was 280 ppm (part per million). The highest levels in recent geologic history between 3 and 3.2 million years ago is 400 ppm and this number was set as the tipping point. In May, 2010, the level is 387 ppm and rising fast. The point of no return, or tipping point is closing and everything must be done to reduce fossil fuel consumption. The following is expected to happen with increasing temperatures:
One Degree
Over the last century there has been a 1 degree C (1.5F) rise in temperature which is high by earth’s standards. Elevated C02 levels today are melting the polar caps and major ice fields that supply rivers with irrigation water. With a rise of 1 more degree the Greenland ice sheet will melt, and it is already starting.
Two Degrees
If the world heats up by another 2 degrees C the results will be catastrophic. A new world conference attended by up to 24,000 people in Copenhagen in the fall of 2010 will sound the alarm. This level was expected at 2050.
Three Degrees
A 3 degree rise in temperature guarantees disaster. This will cause the Greenland sheet to melt completely,and the ocean levels will rise more than 25 m (80’). A 3 degree rise would burn away the Amazon forest, flood major cities and lowlands, and release more C02 from the melting of the methane hydrates now frozen on the floor of the Arctic ocean. There are more methane hydrates than all the known oil and gas, and methane is 8 times more potent as a greenhouse gas as C02. There was a 3 degree rise 3 million years ago, and sea levels were 25 m (80’) higher than today. If we follow the current rate of fossil fuel burning, then temperatures will rise 2-3 degrees by mid century, much sooner than predicted. Oceans Rising air C02 levels are heating the air, which in turn heats the oceans. This increases ocean volume which adds to coastal flooding. Dissolved C02 in the ocean water lowers the pH toward acid which kills animals, especially coral. Furthermore, garbage, over fishing, and polluted dead zones are turning the oceans into lifeless dumps. Rivers Rivers are fed by glaciers that supply water used for irrigation, and the glaciers are disappearing. When the glaciers are gone, as in the Tibet plateau for example, China, India, and Pakistan will fail to grow adequate wheat crops, and this will drive up the world price of wheat.
Tug of War
The earth is starting to bake 1 degree at a time. But the heating is offset, or masked by the cooling effect of particulate matter in the air (soot, carbon, nitrates, sulfates) from the burning of fossil fuels. Particulate pollution attracts water droplets, which form bright clouds that act as giant reflectors or mirrors. This layer can be 3 km (1.8 mi.) thick and is happening all over the world. Since 1960, the dimming of the sun has been from 10% to 20% depending on the location. There is a tug of war going on, between greenhouse gases, and particulate cooling from the dimming of the sun. Global dimming, or cooling has lulled people into a false sense of security and has been protecting us from an even greater threat – accelerated global warming. More than ½ of the warming effect has been masked by particulate cooling. But, the heating effect is forcing the climate to a warmer state with the constant addition of C02 (31 billion tons per year (11)) of C02 to the air. To confirm this, vapor trail absence resulting from the 9/11/2001 ban on air travel resulted in an immediate rise in the temperature difference between day and night of 1 C (1.5F). That is, the nights were cooler and the days hotter, and the change was sudden. The man made clouds from aircraft were gone. 5,000 weather stations made the measurements. Three other separate projects verify global dimming from particulate: pan evaporation observations, NASA Aquasat satellite, Maldives project (google these). More reflective clouds can alter global rainfall patterns. Normally, every summer, the heat of the sun warms the oceans north of the equator in the northern hemisphere. This draws the rainfall over the equator northward. But now, the clouds in the north are having a cooling effect on the ocean and the rain belt moves south rather than north. The heat that was required to draw tropical rains northward is not there. So the life giving rain belt stays away. This will have a enormous effect on the monsoons for India and China, and the rains in Africa, California, and Mexico. If particulate is reduced we could be creating the worst possible combination. With cooling pollutants going down from reducing the burning of fossil fuels, warming pollutants will become more powerful and will accelerate warming. We would face far faster warming. A catastrophe in one part of the planet will affect other areas like a tidal wave. Living in a temperate zone is not a passport to safety from hungry, homeless, migrating hordes.
Less Than a Decade Left
There is less than a decade left to stop the rise of 1 degree. Emissions must level off. Lowering the particulate in North America will not stop the particulate pollution in India (1 million people per year die of air pollution) and China. So we still face the same problem of particulate pollution. If particulate pollution is eliminated then warming will accelerate. Produce growing areas in California, Arizona, and Florida, where the majority of produce is grown, can expect wilder fluctuations in the weather. This is creating havoc with field producers and production is being affected. Hurricane Wilma in Oct. 2005 wiped out 95% of the winter vegetables in Florida. Florida supplies the U.S. with 50% of the winter vegetables. More severe hurricanes are expected with the slowing of the Gulf Stream and subsequent heating of the Atlantic. As a result the supply and price stability of fresh produce is no more. However, fresh food is absolutely essential for good health and is required every day by every single person. There is no choice but to lower fossil fuel burning. As it is, agriculture in California and Mexico will fall dramatically or cease from a lack of water. This has already started. Production will have to shift to other regions. SA offers a package of solutions which involves the growing of clean pure food, on a sustainable, and non polluting basis from renewable fuels. We have an operation that grows crops with 1/10 of the water used by arid agriculture, is powered with heat and electricity from renewable fuels which are carbon neutral and with minimal particulate, and is pollution free. This is the future of sustainable food growing.
(Sources: NASA, Goddard Space Institute, Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change)
Greenhouse Effect and Global Warming: General Notes
The greenhouse gases are mainly carbon dioxide and methane and are a result of energy derived from fossil fuels. These gases trap infra red radiation from the sun within the earth's atmospheric envelope, and this elevates atmospheric temperatures. Levels of CO2 in the atmosphere have risen from 280 parts per million (ppm) at the beginning of the Industrial Revolution in the late 18th century to 355 ppm today, an increase of over 25 percent, primarily because of increased fossil fuel combustion. It is expected that the current level will double some time in this century. Every month its up, and the Arctic is melting like an ice cube in the sun.
Rising temperatures will have dire consequences. One scenario suggests that a 2 degree C rise in temperature will be sufficient to melt the polar ice caps and raise the level of the oceans by 2 meters. This would flood all the deltas and lowlands in the world, and these are usually productive agricultural areas that export food. Most of Florida and the Gulf coast will disappear under water. At the last peak of CO2 levels, about 150,000 years ago according to ice core records, global mean temperature was 2C warmer than it is today. About 80 million years ago during the time of the dinosaurs, CO2 was about 8 times what it is today, at which time the polar temperatures were at least 15C warmer, though equatorial temperatures were similar. When compared to cooling, a 1.5 to 2C cooling would be sufficient to initiate a glacial advance.
Global models of CO2 indicate mean increases of temperature of 4 to 8 C (7 – 14
The world may have only 7 years to start reducing the annual buildup of greenhouse gas emissions that otherwise threatens global catastrophe within decades. The Inter-governmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC: A group of 2800 scientists worldwide who regularly provide peer reviewed information on climate change; winner of the Nobel Prize, and headed by R.K. Pachauri) have affirmed for years that greenhouse gas emissions are raising the Earth’s temperature. The Earth is on a trajectory to warm more than 4.5 degrees Fahrenheit by around mid century. Exceeding that threshold could trigger a series of phenomena: Arable land will turn into desert, higher sea levels will flood coastal areas, and changes in the convection of the oceans will alter currents such as the Gulf Stream, that determine regional weather patterns.
Manhattan and Florida will be underwater, while Nevada and the Southwest will have no water at all. St. Petersburgh in Russia will be lost as will delta areas all over the world. Millions would flee coastal flooding and the desertification of farmlands, creating instant “climate refugees.”
The IPCC recently said: “The cities, power plants and factories we build in the next seven years will shape our climate in mid-century. We have to act now to price carbon and create incentives to change the waywe use energy – and thereby avert nothing less than an existential threat to civilization.”
While some industries will prosper, other sectors of the economy, especially those that produce or rely on coal, oil, steel and cement, will contract. Electricity prices will increase in the near and middle terms. With the rising costs of energy, the costs of food production and distribution will go up, therefore greatly increasing the cost of food.
Either the temperature of the planet warms more than 4.5 degrees and vast regions slide toward being uninhabitable, or we start to change, now. The reward will be survival.
SURVIVAL ALARM
The following was written by Carlos Pascual and Strobe Talbott (Vice President and President of the Brookings Institution); special to the Washington Post, Sept. 2, 2008. The world may have only 7 years to start reducing the annual buildup of greenhouse gas emissions that otherwise threatens global catastrophe within decades. The Inter-governmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC: A group of 2800 scientists worldwide who regularly provide peer reviewed information on climate change; winner of the Nobel Prize, and headed by R.K. Pachauri) have affirmed for years that greenhouse gas emissions are raising the Earth’s temperature. The Earth is on a trajectory to warm more than 4.5 degrees Fahrenheit by around mid century. Exceeding that threshold could trigger a series of phenomena: Arable land will turn into desert, higher sea levels will flood coastal areas, and changes in the convection of the oceans will alter currents such as the Gulf Stream, that determine regional weather patterns. Manhattan and Florida will be underwater, while Nevada and the Southwest will have no water at all. St. Petersburgh in Russia will be lost as will delta areas all over the world. Millions would flee coastal flooding and the desertification of farmlands, creating instant “climate refugees.” The IPCC recently said: “The cities, power plants and factories we build in the next seven years will shape our climate in mid-century. We have to act now to price carbon and create incentives to change the way we use energy – and thereby avert nothing less than an existential threat to civilization.”
While some industries will prosper, other sectors of the economy, especially those that produce or rely on coal, oil, steel and cement, will contract. Electricity prices will increase in the near and middle terms. With the rising costs of energy, the costs of food production and distribution will go up, therefore greatly increasing the cost of food.
Either the temperature of the planet warms more than 4.5 degrees and vast regions slide toward being uninhabitable, or we start to change, now. The reward will be survival.
We are doing something.
References
(1) Swedish Institute for Food and Biotechnology
(2) Professor of Physics, California Institute of Technology in Pasadena CA; Calgary Herald March 19, 2002
(3) Scientific American, March, 1998; The End of Cheap Oil
(4) Kenneth S. Deffeyes, Hubbert’s Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage
(5) British Petroleum Corp. estimates as reported in National Post
(6) Associated Press: Conference on oil, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden; May 23 and 24, 2002
(7) Gwynne Dyer, freelance journalist based in London, Sept. 13, 00
(8) Jack Zagar; Golden Colorado petroleum engineer addressing Canadian Nuclear Society’s Climate Change and Energy Options
Symposium, Nov. 18, 1999; as reported by Calgary Herald, in Ottawa
(9) Energy Information Administration; an arm of the U.S. Energy Dept. Nov. 29, 2002; Calgary Herald
(10) Search “consumption of oil” in Google
(11)
Barrels of oil burned each year: 30 billion
Wt. of 1 barrel of oil: 300 lbs
Tonnes of CO2 from burning 1 bbl of oil (3 x 300 lbs / 2200): 0.409 tonnes
Tonnes of CO2 in 30 billion bbls of oil (31 B x .409): 12.6 billion tons
Tonnes of CO2 in all fossil fuels (12.6 x 2.5): 31.6 billion tons
Weight of CO2 2.3 kg / m3: .0023 tonne
Cubic meters of CO2 in 31 billion tones (31 billion / .0023 tonnes per m3): 13,478 billion m3
Cubic meters in a layer 1 km by 100 m deep (or .62 mi x 109 yds deep): 100,000,000 m3
Kilometers this layer 1 km by 100 m deep would stretch out (13,478 billion m3 / 100,000,000 m3): 134,780 km (83,750 mi)
Circumference of the earth in km: 40,000 km (25,000 mi)
Times around the earth 1 km wide and 100m deep(134,780 / 40,000): 3.36 times PER YEAR